Digital Transformation | Open Innovation

Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Open Innovation Network for Globalization 4.0

The World Economic Forum annual meeting is a high-profile gathering that brings together leaders of global society. The heads and members of more than 100 governments, top executives of the 1,000 foremost global companies, and numerous others collaborate at the beginning of each year to define priorities and shape agendas.

The theme for Davos-Klosters 2019 is "Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution." A key component of the international debate will be about how the transformation is introducing technologies at a speed and scale unparalleled in history.

Meanwhile, digital business innovation is enabled by access to essential telecom infrastructure. The internet combines thousands of public and private networks from around the world, which together are the key foundation for the Global Networked Economy. And since its inception in 1984, more than 4.7 zettabytes of internet protocol (IP) data traffic have already flowed across it.

Enabling the Global Networked Economy

According to the Visual Networking Index (VNI) by Cisco, exponential growth will continue. As an example, by 2022, more IP data traffic will cross global networks than in all prior ‘internet years’ combined up to the end of 2016. Meaning, more IP data traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the public internet began.

Where will that data traffic come from? All of us, our electronic devices and the way we use the internet. By 2022, 60 percent of the global population will be internet users. More than 28 billion devices and connections will be online. And, video content will make up 82 percent of all IP data traffic.

"The size and complexity of the internet continues to grow in ways that many could not have imagined. Since we first started the VNI Forecast in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, amassing a 36 percent CAGR with more people, devices and applications accessing IP networks," said Jonathan Davidson, senior vice president at Cisco Systems.

According to the latest Cisco assessment, global service providers are focused on transforming their networks to better manage and route online data traffic, while delivering premium experiences.


VNI Key Predictions for 2022

Cisco’s VNI looks at the impact that users, devices and other trends will have on global IP networks over a five-year period. From 2017 to 2022, Cisco predicts:

  • Global IP traffic is expected to reach 396 exabytes per month by 2022, up from 122 exabytes per month in 2017. That’s 4.8 zettabytes of traffic per year by 2022.
  • By 2022, the busiest hour of internet traffic will be six times more active than the average. Busy hour internet traffic will grow by nearly five times (37 percent CAGR) from 2017 to 2022, reaching 7.2 petabytes per second by 2022. In comparison, average internet traffic will grow by nearly four times (30 percent CAGR) over the same period to reach 1 petabyte by 2022.
  • There will be 4.8 billion internet users by 2022. That’s up from 3.4 billion in 2017 or 45 percent of the world’s population.
  • By 2022, there will be 28.5 billion fixed and mobile personal devices and connections, up from 18 billion in 2017—or 3.6 networked devices/connections per person, from 2.4 per person.
  • More than half of all devices and connections will be machine-to-machine by 2022, up from 34 percent in 2017. That’s 14.6 billion connections from smart speakers, fixtures, devices and everything else, up from 6.1 billion.
  • Average global fixed broadband speeds will nearly double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps.
  • Average global Wi-Fi connection speeds will more than double from 24.4 Mbps to 54.0 Mbps.
  • Average global mobile connection speeds will more than triple from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps.
  • IP video traffic will quadruple by 2022. As a result, it will make up an even larger percentage of total IP traffic than before—up to 82 percent from 75 percent.
  • Gaming traffic is expected to grow nine-fold from 2017 to 2022. It will represent four percent of overall IP traffic in 2022.
  • Virtual and augmented reality traffic will skyrocket as more consumers and businesses use the technologies. By 2022, virtual and augmented reality traffic will reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.

Regional IP Data Traffic Growth (2017 – 2022)

  • APAC: 173 exabytes/month by 2022, 32 percent CAGR, four-times growth
  • North America: 108 exabytes/month by 2022, 21 percent CAGR, three-times growth
  • Western Europe: 50 exabytes/month 2022, 22 percent CAGR, three-times growth
  • Central & Eastern Europe: 25 exabytes/month by 2022, 26 percent CAGR, three-times growth
  • Middle East and Africa: 21 exabytes/month by 2022, 41 percent CAGR, six-times growth
  • Latin America: 19 exabytes/month by 2022, 21 percent CAGR, three-times growth

The Cisco Complete VNI Forecast includes global, regional, and country-level projections and trends associated with fixed and mobile networks. The full report includes additional information and analysis on IoT by industry vertical, IPv6 adoption, traffic growth by application, traffic patterns, cord cutting implications, Wi-Fi hotspots, broadband network performance and network security issues.